Analysing and forecasting tourism demand in Vietnam with artificial neural networks

Mestrado APNORVietnam has experienced a tourism boom over the last decade with more than 18 million international tourists in 2019, compared to 1.5 million twenty-five years ago. Tourist spending has translated into rising employment and income for the tourism sector, making it the key driver to the socio-economic development of the country. Facing the COVID-19 pandemic, Vietnam´s tourism has suffered extreme economic losses. However, the number of international tourists is expected to reach the pre-pandemic levels in the next few years after the COVID-19 pandemic subsides. Forecasting tourism demand plays an essential role in predicting future economic development. Accurate predictions of tourism volume would facilitate decision-makers and managers to optimize resource allocation as well as to balance environmental and economic aspects. Various methods to predict tourism demand have been introduced over the years. One of the most prominent approaches is Artificial Neural Network (ANN) thanks to its capability to handle highly volatile and non-linear data. Given the significance of tourism to the economy, a precise forecast of tourism demand would help to foresee the potential economic growth of Vietnam. First, the research aims to analyse Vietnam´s tourism sector with a special focus on international tourists. Next, several ANN architectures are experimented with the datasets from 2008 to 2020, to predict the monthly number of international tourists traveling to Vietnam including COVID-19 lockdown periods. The results showed that with the correct selection of ANN architectures and data from the previous 12 months, the best ANN models can forecast the number of international tourists for next month with a MAPE between 7.9% and 9.2%. As the method proves its forecasting accuracy, it would serve as a valuable tool for Vietnam´s policymakers and firm managers to make better investment and strategic decisions to promote tourism after the COVID-19 situation.O Vietname conheceu um boom turístico na última década com mais de 18 milhões de turistas internacionais em 2019, em comparação com 1,5 milhões há vinte e cinco anos. As despesas turísticas traduziram-se num aumento do emprego e de receitas no sector do turismo, tornando-o no principal motor do desenvolvimento socioeconómico do país. Perante a pandemia da COVID-19, o turismo no Vietname sofreu perdas económicas extremas. Porém, espera-se que o número de turistas internacionais, pós pandemia da COVID-19, atinja os níveis pré-pandémicos nos próximos anos. A previsão da procura turística desempenha um papel essencial na previsão do desenvolvimento económico futuro. Previsões precisas facilitariam os decisores e gestores a otimizar a afetação de recursos, bem como o equilíbrio entre os aspetos ambientais e económicos. Vários métodos para prever a procura turística têm sido introduzidos ao longo dos anos. Uma das abordagens mais proeminentes assenta na metodologia das Redes Neuronais Artificiais (ANN) dada a sua capacidade de lidar com dados voláteis e não lineares. Dada a importância do turismo para a economia, uma previsão precisa da procura turística ajudaria a prever o crescimento económico potencial do Vietname. Em primeiro lugar, a investigação tem por objetivo analisar o sector turístico do Vietname com especial incidência nos turistas internacionais. Em seguida, várias arquiteturas de ANN são experimentadas com um conjunto de dados de 2008 a 2020, para prever o número mensal de turistas internacionais que se deslocam ao Vietname, incluindo os períodos de confinamento relacionados com a COVID-19. Os resultados mostraram, com a correta seleção de arquiteturas ANN e dados dos 12 meses anteriores, os melhores modelos ANN podem prever o número de turistas internacionais para o próximo mês com uma MAPE entre 7,9% e 9,2%. Como o método evidenciou a sua precisão de previsão, o mesmo pode servir como uma ferramenta valiosa para os decisores políticos e gestores de empresas do Vietname, pois irá permitir fazer melhores investimentos e tomarem decisões estratégicas para promover o turismo pós situação da COVID-19

EFL Teachers' Evaluation on “Skillful-Teaching Writing and Reading 02”

In case that many reforms in learning and teaching English in Vietnam were implemented, exploring the effectiveness of different coursebooks was raised to be a sufficient need. This research is more qualitative than quantitative in its nature, aiming to investigate EFL teachers’ evaluation of the coursebook Skillful – Reading & Writing 02 in a specific educational institution in the Mekong Delta. Thirteen teacher participants using the books were invited to participate in this study. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected by using two instruments, questionnaires and semi-interviews. The study provided a new checklist for evaluating materials in teaching and learning reading and writing.  The findings showed that (1) the merits of the coursebook Skillful – Reading & Writing 02: e.g. colorful illustrations, numerous online learning resources accompanying online accounts, suggestive topics, updated contents, and impressive study skills component; and (2) demerits of the book in terms of writing section which does not match the general objectives of the program. Likewise, (3) the cons are regarding quite small font size and long listening activities of the coursebook. Additionally, some implications were suggested in this study to enhance the effectiveness of using sufficient materials for higher educational institutions

DYNAMIC MODEL WITH A NEW FORMULATION OF CORIOLIS/CENTRIFUGAL MATRIX FOR ROBOT MANIPULATORS

The paper presents a complete generalized procedure based on the Euler-Lagrange equations to build the matrix form of dynamic equations, called dynamic model, for robot manipulators. In addition, a new formulation of the Coriolis/centrifugal matrix is proposed. The link linear and angular velocities are formulated explicitly. Therefore, the translational and rotational Jacobian matrices can be derived straightforward from definition, which makes the calculation of the generalized inertia matrix more convenient. By using Kronecker product, a new Coriolis/centrifugal matrix formulation is set up directly in matrix-based manner and guarantees the skew symmetry property of robot dynamic equations. This important property is usually exploited for developing many control methodologies. The validation of the proposal formulation is confirmed through the symbolic solution and simulation of a typical robot manipulator

Groundwork-Based Research to Design Application SCC - Building a Sustainable Community for Children in Mountainous Area

Children’s clothing is a prime example of fast fashion, as their continuous growth requires frequent purchases. This not only impacts the environment but also puts financial strain on parents. Concurrently, many highland children lack essential material and educational resources, contributing to poverty in the region. To address these challenges, local authorities urgently require a sustainable solution that supports children, communities, and localities, fostering comprehensive development. The project development criteria are evaluated based on the United Nations’ 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs). Data was collected through an online survey of 50 married individuals, 162 non-married individuals, and interviews with those who have organized events for children in the highlands. Additionally, insights were obtained from three children from disadvantaged areas. The results indicate that all target groups show a keen interest in social activities for children. Parents facing difficulties accessing charities, and the lack of effective collaboration between charities and local authorities, hinders sustainable development efforts. Keywords: children, SDG, social sustainabilty, communit

Critical Factors Affecting Construction Price Index: An Integrated Fuzzy Logic and Analytical Hierarchy Process

Nowadays, many construction engineering and technology enterprises are evolving to find that prosperity is driven and inspired by an open economy with dynamic markets and fierce multifaceted competition. Besides brand and product uniqueness, the ability to quickly provide customers with quotes are matters of concern. Such a requirement for prompt cost estimation of construction investment projects with the use of a construction price index poses a significant challenge to contractors. This is because the nature of the construction industry is shaped by changes in domestic and foreign economic factors, socio-financial issues, and is under the influence of various micro and macro factors. This paper presents a fuzzy decision-making approach for calculating critical factors that affect the construction price index. A qualitative approach was implemented based on in-depth interviews of experts in the construction industry in Vietnam. A synthetic comparison matrix was calculated using Buckley approach. The CoA approach was applied to defuzzified the fuzzy weights of factors that affect the construction price index. The research results show that the top five critical factors affecting the construction price index in Vietnam are (1) consumer price index, (2) gross domestic product, (3) basic interest rate, (4) foreign exchange rate, and (5) total export and import

Robust Adaptive Cerebellar Model Articulation Controller for 1-DOF Nonlaminated Active Magnetic Bearings

This paper presents a robust adaptive cerebellar model articulation controller (RACMAC) for 1-DOF nonlaminated active magnetic bearings (AMBs) to achieve desired positions for the rotor using a robust sliding mode control based. The dynamic model of 1-DOF nonlaminated AMB is introduced in fractional order equations. However, it is challenging to design a controller based on the model\u27s parameters due to undefined components and external disturbances such as eddy current losses in the actuator, external disturbance, variant parameters of the model while operating. In order to tackle the problem, RACMAC, which has a cerebellar model to estimate nonlinear disturbances, is investigated to resolve this problem. Based on this estimation, a robust adaptive controller that approximates the ideal and compensation controllers is calculated. The online parameters of the neural network are adjusted using Lyapunov\u27s stability theory to ensure the stability of system. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed controller.The simulation results indicate that the CMAC multiple nonlinear multiple estimators are close to the actual nonlinear disturbance value, and the effectiveness of the proposed RACMAC method compared with the FOPID and SMC controllers has been studied previously

Social capital and job search success: The case of undergraduates in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

The literature has proven the positive role of social capital on job search success, but the researchers' community has not been convinced completely because social capital is not always good. Moreover, only certain dimensions of the two latent variables were analyzed in the previous research though they are multidimensional. This paper approached the social capital and job search success multidimensionally by applying Partial Least Square - Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) to explore the path that social capital impacts on job search success. The primary data of 400 undergraduates in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam were used in the model. The results have confirmed the positive role of bonding social capital and general trust in acquired job quality, job search cost and job search convenience

FATTY ACID COMPOSITION AND ANTIOXIDANT ACTIVITY OF CAMELLIA NINHII SEED OIL COLLECTED IN LAM DONG PROVINCE

The seed oil of Camellia ninhii was studied for the first time on its fatty acid composition by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and antioxidant activity by the DPPH method. The results show that unsaturated fatty acids account for the largest amount, especially oleic acid with 45.43% of the total sample analyzed. In addition, other fatty acids, palmitic, linoleic, pentadecanoic, and two aromatic acids, benzoic and cinnamic, were present. The sample of C. ninhii seed oil exhibited mild antioxidant activity against DPPH free radicals with IC50 = 0.94 mg/mL

Alumni survey of Masters of Public Health (MPH) training at the Hanoi School of Public Health

© 2007 Le et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Life-Cycle Land-Use Requirement for PV in Vietnam

Over the last 15 years, photovoltaics (PV) in Vietnam has experienced development. The increased installed capacity of PV requires more land for installation sites as well as for manufacturing the plants’ component and waste treatment during the plants’ decommissioning. As a developing country, in which more than 80% of the population’s livelihood depends on agriculture, there are concerns about the competition of land for agriculture and solar development. This paper estimates the life-cycle land-use requirement for PV development in Vietnam, to provide the scientific-based evidence for policy makers on the quantity of land required, so that the land budget can be suitably allocated. The direct land-use requirement for PV ranges from 3.7 to 6.7 m2 MWh−1 year, and the total fenced area is 7.18 to 8.16 m2 MWh−1 year. Regarding the life-cycle land use, the land occupation is 241.85 m2a and land transformation is 16.17 m2 per MWh. Most of the required land area is for the installation of the PV infrastructure, while the indirect land use of the background process is inconsiderable